Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf meet at Eintracht-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Eintracht Braunschweig's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Eintracht-Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Fortuna Düsseldorf, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Eintracht Braunschweig winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Eintracht Braunschweig — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Braunschweig 59% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 54% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.07 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.814 / defence 1.158 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.818 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.332. Data: 59 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 59 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 29% | Draw 31% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 39%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Braunschweig 50% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 29% | Draw 31% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.07 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.814 / def 1.158 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.818 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 29% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (7 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 1W | Draws 2 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 4W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Eintracht Braunschweig's attack at 0.81x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (0.82x) against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
29%
3.39
31%
3.18
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.33
1.26
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.26 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 16W 17D 26L from 59 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 21L across 59 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Eintracht Braunschweig against 1.42 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 10W 9D 10L from 29 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 11W 7D 11L across 29 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.37 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 61%.
Last 59 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 16W 17D 26L in their last 59 games (1.10 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 23W 15D 21L in their last 59 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.34 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortuna Düsseldorf won 5-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
2
Draws
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 59%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 55% (Fortuna Düsseldorf). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 69% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 55% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Braunschweig defy the odds to beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.07 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.26 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.82 / defence 0.87, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 29% | Draw 31% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 39%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Eintracht Braunschweig win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 54%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.10 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Braunschweig win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.