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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 25 as SV Elversberg welcome 1. FC Magdeburg to Waldstadion Kaiserlinde. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Elversberg — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg's home record at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde: 5W 4D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, SV Elversberg have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for SV Elversberg, 1 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 4–0 with SV Elversberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Elversberg trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
1. FC Magdeburg trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 55% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 59% | 1. FC Magdeburg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.94 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.983 / defence 0.917 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.381 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.362. 1. FC Magdeburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing SV Elversberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. 1. FC Magdeburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.381 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 SV Elversberg games / 58 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 42% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 34%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Elversberg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SV Elversberg 50% | 1. FC Magdeburg 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (5 meetings): SV Elversberg 2W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1W • Goals trend: 2.80 goals/game | Total H2H goals: SV Elversberg 8 – 6 1. FC Magdeburg • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 60% | Win rates: SV Elversberg 40% / Draw 40% / 1. FC Magdeburg 20% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 42% / draw 24% / away 34% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.80 goals/game (60% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.66 (71% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 72% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D • 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L • SV Elversberg home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • 1. FC Magdeburg away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | CS 3 • Form edge: SV Elversberg lead by 0.50 PPG (1.80 vs 1.30) • xG vs form (SV Elversberg): Poisson xG of 1.94 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.80 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (1. FC Magdeburg): Poisson xG of 1.73 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.70 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.66 (71% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 72% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on SV Elversberg — SV Elversberg at 42% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 42% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Magdeburg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 72% | xG SV Elversberg 1.94 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.983 / def 0.917 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.381 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.73
1. FC Magdeburg xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SV Elversberg 1 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 42% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
• Record (5 meetings): SV Elversberg 2W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1W • Goals trend: 2.80 goals/game | Total H2H goals: SV Elversberg 8 – 6 1. FC Magdeburg • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 60% | Win rates: SV Elversberg 40% / Draw 40% / 1. FC Magdeburg 20% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 42% / draw 24% / away 34% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 2.80 goals/game (60% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.66 (71% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 72% — no strong aligned signal
What form are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
• SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D • 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L • SV Elversberg home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | CS 4 • 1. FC Magdeburg away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | CS 3 • Form edge: SV Elversberg lead by 0.50 PPG (1.80 vs 1.30) • xG vs form (SV Elversberg): Poisson xG of 1.94 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.80 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (1. FC Magdeburg): Poisson xG of 1.73 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.70 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.5 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.66 (71% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 72% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on SV Elversberg — SV Elversberg at 42% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture