SV Elversberg 3-1 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Waldstadion Kaiserlinde plays host to SV Elversberg versus Arminia Bielefeld in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Elversberg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
Arminia Bielefeld (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in SV Elversberg's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SV Elversberg 0W, Arminia Bielefeld 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Arminia Bielefeld winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SV Elversberg — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Arminia Bielefeld — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 50% versus Arminia Bielefeld 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 50% | Arminia Bielefeld 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.38 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.942 / defence 0.823 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.731 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.308. Data: 60 SV Elversberg games / 26 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 50% | Draw 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 20%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Arminia Bielefeld 5.00. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Elversberg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Elversberg 40% | Arminia Bielefeld 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 50% | Draw 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG SV Elversberg 1.38 / Arminia Bielefeld 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.942 / def 0.823 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.731 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Arminia Bielefeld xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
SV Elversberg 3 - 1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 50% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both SV Elversberg and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Arminia Bielefeld?
Record (1 meetings): SV Elversberg 0W | Draws 0 | Arminia Bielefeld 1W.
What form are SV Elversberg and Arminia Bielefeld in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Arminia Bielefeld's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.73x) against SV Elversberg's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
50%
2.02
30%
3.29
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.16
0.79
Arminia Bielefeld xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
5%
19.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 0.79 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Elversberg come into this having played 26 games, going 14W 6D 6L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arminia Bielefeld sit at 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (7W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Elversberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SV Elversberg's home form reads 7W 4D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Arminia Bielefeld have taken 0.58 points per game from 12 outings (1W 4D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arminia Bielefeld's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 1.46 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 26 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 14W 6D 6L in their last 26 games (1.85 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 7W 7D 12L in their last 26 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
SV Elversberg's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 2.08 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.58 PPG.
Have SV Elversberg or Arminia Bielefeld been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Arminia Bielefeld in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SV Elversberg
0
Draws
1
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 1, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when SV Elversberg 3-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Elversberg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 42%, Arminia Bielefeld 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Elversberg) and 33% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play Arminia Bielefeld?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 58% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SV Elversberg's recent games and 33% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
SV Elversberg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Arminia Bielefeld.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.38 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 0.79 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SV Elversberg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.94 / defence 0.82 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.73 / defence 0.93, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 50% | Draw 30% | Arminia Bielefeld 20%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 50%, Arminia Bielefeld 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.