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Poisson model favours SV Elversberg (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face SV Elversberg.

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Analysis

SV Elversberg make the trip to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to face SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

SV Elversberg have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Elversberg have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, SV Elversberg are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SV Elversberg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 5 meetings, SV Elversberg have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 0–6 with SV Elversberg winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SV Elversberg have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

SV Elversberg — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% versus SV Elversberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | SV Elversberg 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 xG and SV Elversberg 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.020 / defence 1.312 | SV Elversberg attack 1.167 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.358. Data: 59 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 59 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 23% | SV Elversberg 53%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | SV Elversberg 1.89. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SV Elversberg are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | SV Elversberg 70% BTTS from recent games.

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