SC Paderborn 07 2-1 Dynamo Dresden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden meet at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dynamo Dresden have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Dresden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo Dresden's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.60 for Dynamo Dresden. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Dynamo Dresden in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Paderborn 07 lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Dynamo Dresden — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 65% and Dynamo Dresden 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 62% | Dynamo Dresden 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.10 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.180 / defence 1.061 | Dynamo Dresden attack 1.003 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.308. Data: 60 SC Paderborn 07 games / 26 Dynamo Dresden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 53% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Dresden 24%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Dynamo Dresden 4.17. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | Dynamo Dresden 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 53% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Dresden 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.10 / Dynamo Dresden 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.180 / def 1.061 | Dynamo Dresden attack 1.003 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Dynamo Dresden xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 1 Dynamo Dresden.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 53% chance of winning, Dynamo Dresden a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden?
Record (3 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 2W | Draws 1 | Dynamo Dresden 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.18x the league average against Dynamo Dresden's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dynamo Dresden's attack (1.00x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.38
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.50
1.39
Dynamo Dresden xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
12%
8.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
3%
33.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.39 for Dynamo Dresden, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 14W 6D 6L from 26 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Dresden, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 11L across 26 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Dynamo Dresden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dynamo Dresden heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 8W 2D 3L from 13 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo Dresden's away record stands at 3W 5D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Dresden are on 1.69 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Dynamo Dresden in 77%.
Last 26 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Dynamo Dresden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 14W 6D 6L in their last 26 games (1.85 PPG), while Dynamo Dresden have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Dynamo Dresden away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 2.00 PPG; Dynamo Dresden away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SC Paderborn 07 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 0-3 on 29 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dynamo Dresden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
0
Dynamo Dresden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden?
From 4 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, Dynamo Dresden have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-1 Dynamo Dresden.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for SC Paderborn 07, 77% for Dynamo Dresden — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for SC Paderborn 07 and 77% for Dynamo Dresden. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Dynamo Dresden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Dynamo Dresden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 77% of Dynamo Dresden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Dynamo Dresden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 77% of Dynamo Dresden's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Dynamo Dresden tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Dynamo Dresden in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out Dynamo Dresden 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Dynamo Dresden 2-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.10 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.39 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.18 / defence 1.06 against Dynamo Dresden attack 1.00 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 53% | Draw 23% | Dynamo Dresden 24%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 62%, Dynamo Dresden 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.