SC Paderborn 07 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host Eintracht Braunschweig at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 7W 1D 2L at Home Deluxe Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 2 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 66% and Eintracht Braunschweig 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 62% | Eintracht Braunschweig 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.32 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.300 / defence 1.068 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.914 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.337. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 SC Paderborn 07 games / 58 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 59% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Eintracht Braunschweig 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 70% | Eintracht Braunschweig 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 59% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.32 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.300 / def 1.068 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.914 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 59% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (7 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 3W | Draws 2 | Eintracht Braunschweig 2W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.30x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.68
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.62
1.30
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
10%
10.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
2%
52.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.30 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 29W 14D 15L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form line: 16W 16D 26L from 58 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Braunschweig.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.75 PPG from 28 outings (15W 4D 9L).
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 6W 7D 15L from 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.16 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 29W 14D 15L in their last 58 games (1.74 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 16W 16D 26L in their last 58 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.75 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
3
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 71%, Eintracht Braunschweig 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SC Paderborn 07 and 54% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 57% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 54% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig finished level at 1-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.32 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.30 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.30 / defence 1.07 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 59% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 20%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 62%, Eintracht Braunschweig 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.