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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 host Eintracht Braunschweig at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 7W 1D 2L at Home Deluxe Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 2 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).

Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 66% and Eintracht Braunschweig 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 62% | Eintracht Braunschweig 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.32 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.300 / defence 1.068 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.914 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.337. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 SC Paderborn 07 games / 58 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 59% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Eintracht Braunschweig 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 70% | Eintracht Braunschweig 70% BTTS from recent games.

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