PAU 1-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Valenciennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Valenciennes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 18 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.86 PPG across 7 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 1D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 0.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.57 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 1L across 4 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Valenciennes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 2D 4L from 7 games (0.71 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.57 per game is modest, conceding 1.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Valenciennes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Valenciennes have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.71 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.15 in PAU's favour (1.86 vs 0.71) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Valenciennes half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 29% versus Valenciennes 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 29% | Valenciennes 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.97 xG and Valenciennes 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.152 / defence 0.930 | Valenciennes attack 0.698 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 0.801 / away 1.059. Data: 7 PAU games / 7 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 40% | Draw 37% | Valenciennes 23%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.50 | Draw 2.70 | Valenciennes 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Valenciennes's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAU 25% | Valenciennes 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 40% | Draw 37% | Valenciennes 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 33% | xG PAU 0.97 / Valenciennes 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.152 / def 0.930 | Valenciennes attack 0.698 / def 1.057 | league avg home 0.801 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: PAU (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Valenciennes xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Valenciennes kick off?
PAU vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Valenciennes?
PAU 1 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is PAU vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Valenciennes part of?
PAU vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 40% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 23% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both PAU and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Valenciennes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAU and Valenciennes in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 0.57 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Valenciennes (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.57 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PAU's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Valenciennes's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.70x) against PAU's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
40%
2.53
37%
2.69
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
PAU xG
Total xG
1.66
0.69
Valenciennes xG
2.53
40%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.0 | 13.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for PAU and 0.69 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 1D 2L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Valenciennes sit at 0.71 PPG from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Valenciennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAU carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Valenciennes have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 0.71 PPG overall record — Valenciennes travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.57 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAU have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: PAU have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
Valenciennes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Valenciennes away?
PAU's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 2.00 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.33 PPG.
Have PAU or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
PAU go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAU won 1-4 on 13 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
PAU
2
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Valenciennes?
From 6 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Valenciennes have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Valenciennes 1-4 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Valenciennes?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Valenciennes see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (PAU) and 33% (Valenciennes) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for PAU and 0% for Valenciennes.
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Valenciennes in 33%; PAU have failed to score in 33% of games; Valenciennes in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of PAU's recent matches and 33% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of PAU's recent games and 0% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Valenciennes tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Valenciennes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 8, as PAU and Valenciennes drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.97 xG and Valenciennes 0.69 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.15 / defence 0.93 against Valenciennes attack 0.70 / defence 1.06, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 40% | Draw 37% | Valenciennes 23%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 29%, Valenciennes 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Valenciennes's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.