Niort 2-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Niort take on Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Niort welcome Guingamp to Stade René Gaillard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Niort — All Games: 2W 2D 3L from 7 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.14 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Niort have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Niort at Stade René Gaillard this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade René Gaillard.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 2W 4D 1L from 7 outings — 1.43 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 0.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.71 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp away from home this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 4 games (75%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.43 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Niort at 1.14 PPG versus Guingamp's 1.43. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Niort's 0% and Guingamp's 25% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Niort in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 29% versus Guingamp 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Niort 43% | Guingamp 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 0.51 xG and Guingamp 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.734 / defence 0.956 | Guingamp attack 0.805 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 0.801 / away 1.059. Niort's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 0.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Niort games / 7 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 20% | Draw 42% | Guingamp 39%. Fair-value odds: Niort 5.00 | Draw 2.38 | Guingamp 2.56. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 15% | BTTS probability 23% | Total xG 1.32. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 85% probability — total xG of 1.32 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 77% — Niort's lower xG of 0.51 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 23%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 20% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 15% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 0.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 23%. Form rates corroborate: Niort 0% | Guingamp 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 20% | Draw 42% | Guingamp 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 15% | BTTS 23% | xG Niort 0.51 / Guingamp 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.734 / def 0.956 | Guingamp attack 0.805 / def 0.859 | league avg home 0.801 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.51
Niort xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Guingamp xG
23%
BTTS
39%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Guingamp kick off?
Niort vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Guingamp?
Niort 2 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Niort vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Guingamp part of?
Niort vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 20% chance of winning, Guingamp a 39% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 23% probability that both Niort and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 15%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Niort and Guingamp in?
Niort (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 0.71 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Niort's attack rating (0.73) and Guingamp's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Niort's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 28.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (20.3%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 61% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
20%
5.07
42%
2.40
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
26.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
21.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.51
Niort xG
Total xG
1.32
0.81
Guingamp xG
5.07
20%
Home win
2.40
42%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
38%
Over 1.5
2.63
62%
Under 1.5
1.61
15%
Over 2.5
6.67
85%
Under 2.5
1.18
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
23%
BTTS Yes
4.26
77%
BTTS No
1.31
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
60%
1.66
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26.7 | 21.8 | 8.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 28.1%.
How many goals are Niort and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.51 expected goals for Niort and 0.81 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Niort come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 2D 3L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Niort, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Niort on 1.14 PPG, Guingamp on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Niort's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 2.33 points per game from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.43 PPG overall record — Guingamp travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Niort are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 0.71 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Niort have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Niort have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Guingamp in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.33 PPG; Guingamp away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Niort or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Guingamp in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Niort and Guingamp runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Niort's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Niort
1
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 1, Guingamp have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Guingamp 2-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Niort see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Niort 0% BTTS, Guingamp 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Niort and 33% for Guingamp.
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Guingamp in 67%; Niort have failed to score in 67% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Niort's recent matches and 33% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Niort's recent games and 33% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Guingamp tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Niort cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Guingamp 2-0 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 0.51 xG and Guingamp 0.81 xG, a combined 1.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Niort beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guingamp landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.73 / defence 0.96 against Guingamp attack 0.81 / defence 0.86, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 20% | Draw 42% | Guingamp 39%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Niort win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 15%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 39% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 43%, Guingamp 14%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guingamp's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.14 PPG, Guingamp 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Niort win broke the near-deadlock. Niort (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.