Amiens 2-2 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Amiens take on PAU.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amiens and PAU meet at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 3D 4L from 8 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 0W 1D 3L from 4 Ligue 2 appearances (0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.25 lags behind their overall 0.75 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this season.
PAU have collected 1.75 PPG across 8 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 0.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.62 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, PAU have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
PAU arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.75 vs 0.75) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 50% versus PAU 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 50% | PAU 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 0.64 xG and PAU 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.739 / defence 1.235 | PAU attack 0.779 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 0.830 / away 1.059. Amiens's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Amiens games / 8 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 19% | Draw 41% | PAU 40%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 5.26 | Draw 2.44 | PAU 2.50. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Amiens's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 19% and away win at 40% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 50% | PAU 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 19% | Draw 41% | PAU 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 34% | xG Amiens 0.64 / PAU 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.739 / def 1.235 | PAU attack 0.779 / def 1.040 | league avg home 0.830 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.02
PAU xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs PAU kick off?
Amiens vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs PAU?
Amiens 2 - 2 PAU.
Where is Amiens vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs PAU part of?
Amiens vs PAU is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 19% chance of winning, PAU a 40% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Amiens and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and PAU in?
Amiens (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 0.62 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Amiens's attack rating (0.74) and PAU's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.78x) against Amiens's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.8%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
19%
5.32
41%
2.43
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.66
1.02
PAU xG
5.32
19%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
7%
14.74
21%
4.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.1 | 19.4 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.7%.
How many goals are Amiens and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Amiens and 1.02 for PAU, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens's recent record stands at 1W 3D 4L from 8 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 2L across 8 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAU by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Amiens heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.75 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
PAU's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.12 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; PAU in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and PAU in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while PAU have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or PAU away?
PAU's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 0.33 PPG; PAU away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Amiens or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, PAU in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Amiens
1
Draws
5
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 4, PAU have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Amiens 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Amiens) and 33% (PAU) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Amiens and 33% for PAU.
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; PAU in 33%; Amiens have failed to score in 67% of games; PAU in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Amiens's recent matches and 33% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Amiens's recent games and 33% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and PAU tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, PAU in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens and PAU share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 9, as Amiens and PAU drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 0.64 xG and PAU 1.02 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.74 / defence 1.24 against PAU attack 0.78 / defence 1.04, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 19% | Draw 41% | PAU 40%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 50%, PAU 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm. PAU (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.