Valenciennes 1-2 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valenciennes vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Hainaut plays host to Valenciennes versus Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 11 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valenciennes have collected 0.83 PPG across 6 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Valenciennes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valenciennes's home record at Stade du Hainaut: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Ligue 2 appearances (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
Quevilly (all games): 2W 1D 3L across 6 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.17 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Quevilly have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.83 for Valenciennes, 1.17 for Quevilly — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Valenciennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 33% versus Quevilly 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 33% | Quevilly 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 0.77 xG and Quevilly 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.791 / defence 1.518 | Quevilly attack 0.878 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 0.718 / away 1.141. Valenciennes's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Valenciennes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Valenciennes games / 6 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 17% | Draw 31% | Quevilly 53%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 5.88 | Draw 3.23 | Quevilly 1.89. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valenciennes 33% | Quevilly 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 17% | Draw 31% | Quevilly 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Valenciennes 0.77 / Quevilly 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.791 / def 1.518 | Quevilly attack 0.878 / def 1.360 | league avg home 0.718 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Quevilly xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Quevilly kick off?
Valenciennes vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Quevilly?
Valenciennes 1 - 2 Quevilly.
Where is Valenciennes vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Quevilly part of?
Valenciennes vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 17% chance of winning, Quevilly a 53% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Valenciennes and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Quevilly?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valenciennes and Quevilly in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Valenciennes's attack rating (0.79) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.88x) against Valenciennes's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
17%
6.04
31%
3.25
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
2.29
1.52
Quevilly xG
6.04
17%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
4%
27.59
24%
4.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 15.4 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.52 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Valenciennes have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 1W 2D 3L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Valenciennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Quevilly's form line: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Valenciennes against 1.17 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valenciennes have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 0.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Quevilly have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valenciennes are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Quevilly in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Early Season
Quevilly
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Quevilly away?
Quevilly's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 0.33 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Valenciennes or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valenciennes have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Quevilly in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valenciennes have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Valenciennes
4
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 1, Quevilly have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Valenciennes 2-1 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valenciennes see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 33%, Quevilly 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Valenciennes) and 33% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Valenciennes keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Valenciennes have failed to score in 67% of games; Quevilly in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Valenciennes's recent matches and 67% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valenciennes vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Valenciennes's recent games and 33% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valenciennes and Quevilly tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Quevilly edge out Valenciennes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Valenciennes 1-2 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 0.77 xG and Quevilly 1.52 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.79 / defence 1.52 against Quevilly attack 0.88 / defence 1.36, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 17% | Draw 31% | Quevilly 53%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 33%, Quevilly 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Quevilly's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valenciennes 0.83 PPG, Quevilly 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.