Nancy 1-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nancy vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Le Havre travel to Stade Marcel-Picot to take on Nancy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nancy have gone 0W 2D 5L from 7 outings — a 0.29 PPG return. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.43 goals per game and conceding 1.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nancy's home record at Stade Marcel-Picot: 0W 0D 3L from 3 Ligue 2 appearances (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 2W 4D 1L from 7 Ligue 2 matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 0.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.57 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's away record: 1W 2D 0L from 3 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 3 games (100%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Le Havre's 1.43 PPG return is 1.14 points per game ahead of Nancy's 0.29 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Nancy in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Le Havre in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 43% versus Le Havre 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nancy 43% | Le Havre 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 0.54 xG and Le Havre 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.783 / defence 1.657 | Le Havre attack 0.752 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 0.801 / away 1.059. Nancy's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 0.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Nancy games / 7 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 14% | Draw 32% | Le Havre 54%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 7.14 | Draw 3.12 | Le Havre 1.85. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Nancy's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nancy 33% | Le Havre 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 14% | Draw 32% | Le Havre 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 32% | xG Nancy 0.54 / Le Havre 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.783 / def 1.657 | Le Havre attack 0.752 / def 0.866 | league avg home 0.801 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.54
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Le Havre xG
32%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Le Havre kick off?
Nancy vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Le Havre?
Nancy 1 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Nancy vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Le Havre part of?
Nancy vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 14% chance of winning, Le Havre a 54% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Nancy and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Le Havre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nancy and Le Havre in?
Nancy (all comps): 0W-2D-5L in 7 | 0.29 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 1.86 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Le Havre (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 0.57 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nancy's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.54. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 19.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.0%), 0-2 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
14%
7.19
32%
3.16
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
0 – 2
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.54
Nancy xG
Total xG
1.86
1.32
Le Havre xG
7.19
14%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
58%
1.72
Win to Nil
4%
26.88
32%
3.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 20.5 | 13.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Nancy and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.54 expected goals for Nancy and 1.32 for Le Havre, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nancy's recent record stands at 0W 2D 5L from 7 games, a 0.29 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nancy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 1L across 7 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Le Havre by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nancy heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nancy have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 1W 2D 0L across 3 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nancy are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.86 scored and 0.57 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 games (0.29 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 0.00 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Nancy or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Le Havre in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nancy and Le Havre runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nancy
1
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Le Havre?
From 2 meetings on record, Nancy have won 0, Le Havre have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Le Havre 1-0 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Nancy 33% BTTS, Le Havre 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Nancy and 0% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 100%; Nancy have failed to score in 67% of games; Le Havre in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Nancy's recent matches and 0% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Nancy's recent games and 0% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Le Havre tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nancy and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 8, as Nancy and Le Havre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 0.54 xG and Le Havre 1.32 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.78 / defence 1.66 against Le Havre attack 0.75 / defence 0.87, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 14% | Draw 32% | Le Havre 54%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 43%, Le Havre 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Le Havre's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nancy (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.