Rodez 0-2 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Rodez take on Ajaccio.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Rodez welcome Ajaccio to Stade Paul Lignon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 3W 3D 1L from 7 Ligue 2 matches — 1.71 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez's home record at Stade Paul Lignon: 1W 2D 0L from 3 Ligue 2 appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Paul Lignon.
Ajaccio — All Games: 4W 3D 0L from 7 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.14 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 0.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.57 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ajaccio have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Ajaccio have posted 0W 3D 0L from 3 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.14 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rodez 1.71 PPG, Ajaccio 2.14 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Ajaccio trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 43% versus Ajaccio 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 43% | Ajaccio 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.90 xG and Ajaccio 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.007 / defence 1.077 | Ajaccio attack 0.836 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 0.801 / away 1.059. Data: 7 Rodez games / 7 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 31% | Draw 36% | Ajaccio 34%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Ajaccio 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 33% | Ajaccio 67%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 31% | Draw 36% | Ajaccio 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Rodez 0.90 / Ajaccio 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.007 / def 1.077 | Ajaccio attack 0.836 / def 1.109 | league avg home 0.801 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Ajaccio xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Ajaccio kick off?
Rodez vs Ajaccio kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Ajaccio?
Rodez 0 - 2 Ajaccio.
Where is Rodez vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Ajaccio part of?
Rodez vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 31% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Rodez and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Ajaccio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and Ajaccio in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Ajaccio (all comps): 4W-3D-0L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 0.57 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rodez's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.27
36%
2.80
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Rodez xG
Total xG
1.85
0.95
Ajaccio xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 15.0 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Rodez and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Rodez and 0.95 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez's recent record stands at 3W 3D 1L from 7 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajaccio, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 0L across 7 games — 2.14 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajaccio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajaccio by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rodez heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajaccio's away record stands at 0W 3D 0L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ajaccio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 1.43 scored and 0.57 conceded.
Defensively: Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Ajaccio in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Ajaccio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 games (1.71 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 4W 3D 0L in their last 7 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Ajaccio away?
Rodez's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.67 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Rodez or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Ajaccio runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ajaccio have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Rodez's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Rodez
1
Draws
4
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Ajaccio have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Rodez 1-2 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 33%, Ajaccio 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Rodez and 33% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Ajaccio in 33%; Rodez have failed to score in 33% of games; Ajaccio in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rodez's recent matches and 67% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Rodez's recent games and 33% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajaccio cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Rodez 0-2 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.90 xG and Ajaccio 0.95 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rodez fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ajaccio outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against Ajaccio attack 0.84 / defence 1.11, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 31% | Draw 36% | Ajaccio 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ajaccio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 43%, Ajaccio 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajaccio's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.71. Form held, and they took the win. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.