Quevilly 0-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Quevilly host Auxerre at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 3W 1D 3L from 7 Ligue 2 matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Quevilly's home record at Stade Robert Diochon: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Ligue 2 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre — All Games: 4W 2D 1L from 7 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.14 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.71 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Auxerre — 0.57 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.43). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Quevilly register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Auxerre in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Auxerre trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Quevilly 71% and Auxerre 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 57% | Auxerre 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.92 xG and Auxerre 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.930 / defence 1.259 | Auxerre attack 1.169 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 0.801 / away 1.059. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Quevilly games / 7 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 21% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 51%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Auxerre 1.96. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Quevilly 67% | Auxerre 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 21% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Quevilly 0.92 / Auxerre 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.930 / def 1.259 | Auxerre attack 1.169 / def 1.229 | league avg home 0.801 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Auxerre xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Auxerre kick off?
Quevilly vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Quevilly 0 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Quevilly vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Auxerre part of?
Quevilly vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 21% chance of winning, Auxerre a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Quevilly and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Quevilly and Auxerre in?
Quevilly (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.29 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.14 / GA 0.71 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.93x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
21%
4.85
28%
3.51
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.47
1.56
Auxerre xG
4.85
21%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
4%
23.06
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 13.1 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.56 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Quevilly's recent record stands at 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 1L across 7 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Quevilly heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Auxerre's away record stands at 2W 1D 0L across 3 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 2.14 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Quevilly have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Auxerre in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.00 PPG; Auxerre away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Auxerre in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Quevilly and Auxerre runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Quevilly's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Quevilly
1
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Quevilly 4-3 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Quevilly at 67%, Auxerre at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Quevilly and 67% for Auxerre. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Quevilly's games and 100% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Quevilly vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Quevilly's matches and 67% of Auxerre's.
Do Quevilly and Auxerre tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Quevilly's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 8, as Quevilly and Auxerre drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.92 xG and Auxerre 1.56 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Quevilly fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Auxerre landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.93 / defence 1.26 against Auxerre attack 1.17 / defence 1.23, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 21% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 51%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 57%, Auxerre 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Auxerre's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.