Dijon 2-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dijon host Dunkerque at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 1W 1D 5L from 7 Ligue 2 matches — 0.57 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 2.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.14 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Dijon have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 0W 3D 4L from 7 outings — 0.43 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dunkerque's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dijon at 0.57 PPG versus Dunkerque's 0.43. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dijon register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Dunkerque in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Dijon trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
Dunkerque trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 86% and Dunkerque 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 71% | Dunkerque 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.34 xG and Dunkerque 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.205 / defence 1.530 | Dunkerque attack 0.886 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 0.801 / away 1.059. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Dijon games / 7 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 34% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 38%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Dunkerque 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dunkerque are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 100% | Dunkerque 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 34% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Dijon 1.34 / Dunkerque 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.205 / def 1.530 | Dunkerque attack 0.886 / def 1.392 | league avg home 0.801 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Dunkerque xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Dunkerque kick off?
Dijon vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Dunkerque?
Dijon 2 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is Dijon vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Dunkerque part of?
Dijon vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 34% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dijon and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Dunkerque?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and Dunkerque in?
Dijon (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.14 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dijon's attack rating (1.21) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
34%
2.96
28%
3.53
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.78
1.44
Dunkerque xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.45
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Dijon and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Dijon and 1.44 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dijon come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 1D 5L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dunkerque sit at 0.43 PPG from 7 outings (0W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dunkerque, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dijon on 0.57 PPG, Dunkerque on 0.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Dijon's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.57 PPG overall — Dijon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dunkerque have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dijon are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.71 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
Dunkerque
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Dunkerque away?
Dijon's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.33 PPG; Dunkerque away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dijon
0
Draws
1
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Dunkerque?
From 2 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Dunkerque have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Dunkerque 2-1 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dijon see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dijon at 100%, Dunkerque at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dijon and 67% for Dunkerque. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Dijon's games and 67% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dijon's matches and 67% of Dunkerque's.
Do Dijon and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dijon cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Dunkerque 2-0 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.34 xG and Dunkerque 1.44 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dunkerque landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.21 / defence 1.53 against Dunkerque attack 0.89 / defence 1.39, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 34% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 38%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Dijon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 71%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Dunkerque's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 0.57 PPG, Dunkerque 0.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.