PAU 1-2 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAU host Dunkerque at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 4W 3D 2L from 9 Ligue 2 matches — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 0.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.78 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAU have posted 3W 1D 1L at Stade Nouste Camp — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 0W 3D 6L from 9 outings — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.56 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
PAU are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.34 PPG ahead (1.67 vs 0.33). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
PAU in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 44% versus Dunkerque 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 33% | Dunkerque 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.36 xG and Dunkerque 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.108 / defence 0.970 | Dunkerque attack 0.742 / defence 1.446. League average goals — home 0.849 / away 1.038. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.446 — this is suppressing PAU's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 PAU games / 9 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 33% | Dunkerque 18%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | Dunkerque 5.56. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Dunkerque 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 33% | Dunkerque 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG PAU 1.36 / Dunkerque 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.108 / def 0.970 | Dunkerque attack 0.742 / def 1.446 | league avg home 0.849 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: PAU (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Dunkerque xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Dunkerque kick off?
PAU vs Dunkerque kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Dunkerque?
PAU 1 - 2 Dunkerque.
Where is PAU vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Dunkerque part of?
PAU vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 49% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 18% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both PAU and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Dunkerque?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAU and Dunkerque in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 0.78 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Dunkerque (all comps): 0W-3D-6L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.56 / GA 1.56 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAU's attack rating (1.11) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
49%
2.04
33%
3.04
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
PAU xG
Total xG
2.11
0.75
Dunkerque xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
5%
21.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.3 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are PAU and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for PAU and 0.75 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, PAU have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 4W 3D 2L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque's form line: 0W 3D 6L from 9 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAU are the form team by 1.34 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dunkerque.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.56 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 games (1.67 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Dunkerque away?
PAU's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.75 PPG; Dunkerque away: 0.25 PPG.
Have PAU or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dunkerque go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2025, when Dunkerque won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PAU
2
Draws
6
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Dunkerque?
From 8 meetings on record, PAU have won 0, Dunkerque have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Dunkerque 3-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 25%, Dunkerque 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for PAU and 50% for Dunkerque.
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Dunkerque in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of PAU's recent matches and 50% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of PAU's recent games and 50% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Dunkerque tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dunkerque defy the odds to beat PAU 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat PAU 1-2 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.36 xG and Dunkerque 0.75 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dunkerque outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Dunkerque attack 0.74 / defence 1.45, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 49% | Draw 33% | Dunkerque 18%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Dunkerque win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 33%, Dunkerque 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dunkerque's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Dunkerque winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.