Quevilly 2-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Quevilly take on Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Quevilly welcome Guingamp to Stade Robert Diochon. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 3W 2D 4L from 9 Ligue 2 matches — 1.22 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's home record at Stade Robert Diochon: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Ligue 2 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 2W 4D 3L from 9 outings — 1.11 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 2W 2D 1L from 5 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Quevilly 1.22 PPG, Guingamp 1.11 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Guingamp trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 56% versus Guingamp 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Quevilly 44% | Guingamp 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.68 xG and Guingamp 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.812 / defence 1.095 | Guingamp attack 0.752 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 0.849 / away 1.038. Data: 9 Quevilly games / 9 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 25% | Draw 41% | Guingamp 35%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 4.00 | Draw 2.44 | Guingamp 2.86. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Quevilly's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.54 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 50% | Guingamp 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 25% | Draw 41% | Guingamp 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 31% | xG Quevilly 0.68 / Guingamp 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.812 / def 1.095 | Guingamp attack 0.752 / def 0.989 | league avg home 0.849 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Guingamp xG
31%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Guingamp kick off?
Quevilly vs Guingamp kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Quevilly 2 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is Quevilly vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Guingamp part of?
Quevilly vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 25% chance of winning, Guingamp a 35% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Quevilly and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Quevilly and Guingamp in?
Quevilly (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.11 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Quevilly's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.68. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
4.07
41%
2.45
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Quevilly xG
Total xG
1.54
0.85
Guingamp xG
4.07
25%
Home win
2.45
41%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.24
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
51%
1.98
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
17%
5.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.5 | 18.4 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.1%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.85 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 3W 2D 4L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 2W 4D 3L from 9 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.22 PPG, Guingamp on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.11 PPG overall record — Guingamp travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Quevilly are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.00 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Guingamp in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Quevilly's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Quevilly
3
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Guingamp?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Guingamp have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Quevilly 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Guingamp?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 50%, Guingamp 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Quevilly) and 25% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 50%; Quevilly have failed to score in 50% of games; Guingamp in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Quevilly's recent matches and 25% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Quevilly's recent games and 25% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Guingamp tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly and Guingamp share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 10, as Quevilly and Guingamp drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.68 xG and Guingamp 0.85 xG, a combined 1.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guingamp outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.81 / defence 1.09 against Guingamp attack 0.75 / defence 0.99, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 25% | Draw 41% | Guingamp 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 44%, Guingamp 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.22 PPG, Guingamp 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.