Sochaux 0-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Sochaux take on Auxerre.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sochaux host Auxerre at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Sochaux have gone 6W 1D 2L from 9 outings — a 2.11 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 1L across 4 games at Stade Auguste-Bonal this term (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 5W 3D 1L from 9 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.78 per game and conceding 0.56. Defensively, 0.56 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sochaux at 2.11 PPG versus Auxerre's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Sochaux in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 33% versus Auxerre 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sochaux 33% | Auxerre 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 0.89 xG and Auxerre 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.971 / defence 0.934 | Auxerre attack 1.026 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 0.849 / away 1.038. Data: 9 Sochaux games / 9 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 28% | Draw 37% | Auxerre 34%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 3.57 | Draw 2.70 | Auxerre 2.94. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 0% | Auxerre 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 28% | Draw 37% | Auxerre 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Sochaux 0.89 / Auxerre 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.971 / def 0.934 | Auxerre attack 1.026 / def 1.073 | league avg home 0.849 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Auxerre xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Auxerre kick off?
Sochaux vs Auxerre kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Auxerre?
Sochaux 0 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Sochaux vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Auxerre part of?
Sochaux vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 28% chance of winning, Auxerre a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sochaux and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sochaux and Auxerre in?
Sochaux (all comps): 6W-1D-2L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-3D-1L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 0.56 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sochaux's attack rating (0.97) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Sochaux's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.51
37%
2.69
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Sochaux xG
Total xG
1.88
0.99
Auxerre xG
3.51
28%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 15.2 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.99 for Auxerre, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Sochaux have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 6W 1D 2L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 5W 3D 1L from 9 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sochaux on 2.11 PPG, Auxerre on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sochaux have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sochaux are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.78 scored and 0.56 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Auxerre in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 games (2.11 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Auxerre away?
Sochaux's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 2.25 PPG; Auxerre away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Auxerre in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sochaux and Auxerre runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Sochaux
2
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Auxerre?
From 3 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 0, Auxerre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2022, when Auxerre 0-0 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 0%, Auxerre 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Sochaux and 50% for Auxerre.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sochaux's recent matches and 75% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sochaux's recent games and 50% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Auxerre tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sochaux's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 10, as Sochaux and Auxerre drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 0.89 xG and Auxerre 0.99 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sochaux fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Auxerre landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Auxerre attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 28% | Draw 37% | Auxerre 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 33%, Auxerre 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Auxerre's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sochaux 2.11 PPG, Auxerre 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sochaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.