Nimes 0-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Nimes take on Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Le Havre travel to Stade des Costières to take on Nimes. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nimes — All Games: 3W 4D 2L from 9 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.44 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 0L across 4 games at Stade des Costières this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade des Costières.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 3W 5D 1L from 9 Ligue 2 matches — 1.56 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 0.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.56 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 0L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 4 games (75%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nimes at 1.44 PPG versus Le Havre's 1.56. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Nimes trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Le Havre trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 44% versus Le Havre 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nimes 44% | Le Havre 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 0.84 xG and Le Havre 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 1.067 / defence 1.187 | Le Havre attack 0.717 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 0.849 / away 1.038. Data: 9 Nimes games / 9 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 29% | Draw 39% | Le Havre 32%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | Le Havre 3.12. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Nimes 50% | Le Havre 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 29% | Draw 39% | Le Havre 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 36% | xG Nimes 0.84 / Le Havre 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 1.067 / def 1.187 | Le Havre attack 0.717 / def 0.931 | league avg home 0.849 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Le Havre xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Le Havre kick off?
Nimes vs Le Havre kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Le Havre?
Nimes 0 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Nimes vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Le Havre part of?
Nimes vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 29% chance of winning, Le Havre a 32% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Nimes and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Le Havre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nimes and Le Havre in?
Nimes (all comps): 3W-4D-2L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-5D-1L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 0.56 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nimes's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.40
39%
2.57
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Nimes xG
Total xG
1.73
0.88
Le Havre xG
3.40
29%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 15.7 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Nimes and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Nimes and 0.88 for Le Havre, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nimes's recent record stands at 3W 4D 2L from 9 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 1L across 9 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nimes on 1.44 PPG, Le Havre on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nimes have managed 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 1W 3D 0L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nimes are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.89 scored and 0.56 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Le Havre in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 3W 5D 1L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Le Havre away?
Nimes's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.50 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Nimes or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Le Havre in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Le Havre have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Nimes's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nimes
0
Draws
3
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 1, Le Havre have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Nimes 0-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nimes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Le Havre tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 50%, Le Havre 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Nimes and 0% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Nimes keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Le Havre in 75%; Nimes have failed to score in 50% of games; Le Havre in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nimes's recent matches and 25% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nimes's recent games and 0% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Le Havre tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Nimes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Nimes 0-1 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 0.84 xG and Le Havre 0.88 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nimes fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 1.07 / defence 1.19 against Le Havre attack 0.72 / defence 0.93, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 29% | Draw 39% | Le Havre 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 44%, Le Havre 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Le Havre's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.44 PPG, Le Havre 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.