Nancy 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nancy host Amiens at Stade Marcel-Picot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nancy — All Games: 0W 3D 6L from 9 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.33 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.56 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nancy's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 games at Stade Marcel-Picot this term (0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have recorded 1W 4D 4L from 9 outings — 0.78 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Amiens have posted 1W 2D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.33 PPG (Nancy) versus 0.78 (Amiens). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Nancy in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Amiens in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 56% versus Amiens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 44% | Amiens 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 0.99 xG and Amiens 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.838 / defence 1.630 | Amiens attack 1.099 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 0.849 / away 1.038. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.385 — this is suppressing Nancy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Nancy games / 9 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 18% | Draw 27% | Amiens 56%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Amiens 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Amiens (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Nancy 50% | Amiens 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 18% | Draw 27% | Amiens 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Nancy 0.99 / Amiens 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.838 / def 1.630 | Amiens attack 1.099 / def 1.385 | league avg home 0.849 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Amiens (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Amiens xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Amiens kick off?
Nancy vs Amiens kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Amiens?
Nancy 1 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Nancy vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Amiens part of?
Nancy vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 18% chance of winning, Amiens a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nancy and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Amiens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nancy and Amiens in?
Nancy (all comps): 0W-3D-6L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.56 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Amiens (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.56 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nancy's attack rating (0.84) and Amiens's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
18%
5.68
27%
3.76
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.85
1.86
Amiens xG
5.68
18%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
16%
6.42
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
3%
36.48
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.8 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Nancy and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Nancy and 1.86 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Amiens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nancy come into this having played 9 games, going 0W 3D 6L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (1W 4D 4L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nancy's home form reads 0W 1D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 0.78 PPG overall record — Amiens travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nancy are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.11 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Amiens in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 games (0.33 PPG), while Amiens have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Amiens away?
Amiens's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 0.25 PPG; Amiens away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Nancy or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Amiens in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nancy and Amiens runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nancy's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nancy
1
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Nancy have won 1, Amiens have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2026, when Amiens 1-2 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Amiens?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nancy see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 50%, Amiens 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nancy) and 50% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Amiens in 50%; Nancy have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nancy's recent matches and 50% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nancy's recent games and 50% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Amiens tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Amiens in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nancy and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 10, as Nancy and Amiens drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 0.99 xG and Amiens 1.86 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Amiens landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.84 / defence 1.63 against Amiens attack 1.10 / defence 1.39, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 18% | Draw 27% | Amiens 56%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 44%, Amiens 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Amiens arrived the stronger side — 0.78 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nancy (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.