Dunkerque 2-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Dunkerque take on Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Dunkerque welcome Bastia to Stade Marcel-Tribut. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dunkerque have posted 0W 2D 3L at Stade Marcel-Tribut — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dunkerque at 0.60 PPG versus Bastia's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Dunkerque trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Bastia trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 50% versus Bastia 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dunkerque 40% | Bastia 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.78 xG and Bastia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.641 / defence 1.276 | Bastia attack 0.714 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 0.866 / away 1.061. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Dunkerque's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Dunkerque games / 10 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 26% | Draw 39% | Bastia 36%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 3.85 | Draw 2.56 | Bastia 2.78. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Dunkerque 40% | Bastia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 26% | Draw 39% | Bastia 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Dunkerque 0.78 / Bastia 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.641 / def 1.276 | Bastia attack 0.714 / def 1.407 | league avg home 0.866 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Bastia xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Bastia kick off?
Dunkerque vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Dunkerque 2 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Dunkerque vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Bastia part of?
Dunkerque vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 26% chance of winning, Bastia a 36% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Dunkerque and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dunkerque and Bastia in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Bastia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dunkerque's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.91
39%
2.60
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.75
0.97
Bastia xG
3.91
26%
Home win
2.60
39%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 16.8 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Dunkerque and 0.97 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dunkerque come into this having played 10 games, going 1W 3D 6L for 0.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dunkerque's home form reads 0W 2D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.90 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bastia in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Bastia in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Bastia have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Bastia away?
Bastia's away record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.40 PPG; Bastia away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dunkerque and Bastia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2023, when Bastia won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dunkerque's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Dunkerque
3
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 2, Bastia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 40%, Bastia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Dunkerque) and 60% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque have failed to score in 60% of games; Bastia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 60% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Dunkerque's recent games and 60% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Bastia tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bastia in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dunkerque cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Bastia 2-0 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.78 xG and Bastia 0.97 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dunkerque beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bastia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.64 / defence 1.28 against Bastia attack 0.71 / defence 1.41, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 26% | Draw 39% | Bastia 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Dunkerque win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 40%, Bastia 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Bastia's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Dunkerque winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.