Dijon 0-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Dijon take on Valenciennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus Valenciennes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 24 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dijon have collected 1.11 PPG across 9 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 games at Stade Gaston-Gérard this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valenciennes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 3D 4L from 9 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valenciennes's away record: 1W 2D 1L from 4 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.11 PPG for Dijon against 1.00 for Valenciennes. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Valenciennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 67% and Valenciennes 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 56% | Valenciennes 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.09 xG and Valenciennes 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.226 / defence 1.388 | Valenciennes attack 0.739 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 0.849 / away 1.038. Data: 9 Dijon games / 9 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 33% | Draw 35% | Valenciennes 32%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Valenciennes 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Dijon 80% | Valenciennes 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 33% | Draw 35% | Valenciennes 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Dijon 1.09 / Valenciennes 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.226 / def 1.388 | Valenciennes attack 0.739 / def 1.048 | league avg home 0.849 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Valenciennes xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Valenciennes kick off?
Dijon vs Valenciennes kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Valenciennes?
Dijon 0 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is Dijon vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Valenciennes part of?
Dijon vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 33% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dijon and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Valenciennes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and Valenciennes in?
Dijon (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Valenciennes (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dijon's attack rating (1.23) and Valenciennes's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.74x) against Dijon's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
35%
2.88
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.16
1.06
Valenciennes xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Dijon and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Dijon and 1.06 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dijon come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 1D 5L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valenciennes sit at 1.00 PPG from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Dijon against 1.00 for Valenciennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Dijon's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Dijon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Valenciennes have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dijon are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.78 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Valenciennes away?
Dijon's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.75 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dijon
2
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Valenciennes?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Valenciennes have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Valenciennes 2-2 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dijon tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Valenciennes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 75%, Valenciennes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Dijon and 0% for Valenciennes.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Valenciennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dijon's games and 50% of Valenciennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dijon's recent games and 0% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valenciennes defy the odds to beat Dijon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valenciennes beat Dijon 0-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.09 xG and Valenciennes 1.06 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dijon fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.23 / defence 1.39 against Valenciennes attack 0.74 / defence 1.05, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 33% | Draw 35% | Valenciennes 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Valenciennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 56%, Valenciennes 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Valenciennes's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.11 PPG, Valenciennes 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valenciennes win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.