Nancy 1-5 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nancy vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Annecy make the trip to Stade Marcel Picot to face Nancy in Ligue 2 (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Nancy have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Nancy have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Annecy's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Annecy have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Annecy are 0.60 PPG clear of Nancy over their recent games (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Nancy edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2025, ended Nancy 2–1 Annecy — a Nancy win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Nancy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 47% versus Annecy 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 50% | Annecy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.12 xG and Annecy 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.771 / defence 1.414 | Annecy attack 0.956 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.143. Nancy's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Annecy's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nancy's projected output up. Nancy's defence rating of 1.414 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Data: built from Nancy's last 30 games and Annecy's last 64.
Result probabilities: Nancy 26% | Draw 29% | Annecy 45%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 3.91 | Draw 3.43 | Annecy 2.21. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Nancy 40% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade Marcel Picot • Kick-off: Friday 17 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 26% | Draw 29% | Annecy 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Nancy 1.12 / Annecy 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.771 / def 1.414 | Annecy attack 0.956 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Annecy (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Annecy xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nancy vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Nancy vs Annecy kick off?
Nancy vs Annecy kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 17 April 2026 at Stade Marcel Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Annecy?
Nancy 1 - 5 Annecy.
Where is Nancy vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Annecy part of?
Nancy vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 26% chance of winning, Annecy a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nancy and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nancy vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nancy's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.96x) against Nancy's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Nancy's last 30 games and Annecy's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
26%
3.91
29%
3.43
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.67
1.55
Annecy xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
18.35
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nancy vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nancy and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Nancy and 1.55 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nancy come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 9D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (12W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Annecy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Nancy's home form reads 4W 3D 8L across their last 15 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.27 points per game from their last 15 away games (6W 1D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nancy are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.20 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
Nancy (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nancy
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Nancy vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Nancy and Annecy in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 7W 9D 14L in their last 30 games (1.00 PPG), while Annecy have gone 12W 7D 11L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 1.00 PPG; Annecy away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Nancy or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Annecy in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 3 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won Nancy 1-5 Annecy on 17 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Nancy
0
Draws
1
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Nancy vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Annecy?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Nancy have won 2, Annecy have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Annecy 1-2 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Annecy?
Nancy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Nancy) and 33% (Annecy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Nancy) and 53% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 33%; Nancy have failed to score in 47% of games; Annecy in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nancy vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nancy and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Nancy's recent matches and 33% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nancy and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Nancy's recent games and 53% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Nancy's recent matches and 80% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Annecy run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Nancy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Nancy 1-5 at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.12 xG and Annecy 1.55 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Annecy outscored their 1.55 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.77 / defence 1.41 against Annecy attack 0.96 / defence 1.23, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 26% | Draw 29% | Annecy 45%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 50%, Annecy 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Nancy (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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