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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Estac Troyes host Boulogne at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Estac Troyes at Stade de l'Aube this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Boulogne stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Boulogne's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estac Troyes at 1.70 PPG versus Boulogne's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Estac Troyes, 0 for Boulogne and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Estac Troyes winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Boulogne in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 59% versus Boulogne 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 56% | Boulogne 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.55 xG and Boulogne 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.498 / defence 1.048 | Boulogne attack 0.771 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.169. Estac Troyes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.498 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 Estac Troyes games / 30 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 50% | Draw 29% | Boulogne 21%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Boulogne 4.76. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Estac Troyes 70% | Boulogne 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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