🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Clermont Foot host Nancy at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Nancy stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Nancy's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Clermont Foot at 0.70 PPG versus Nancy's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Nancy in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Clermont Foot, 1 for Nancy and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Nancy winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Nancy in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 59% versus Nancy 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Nancy 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.08 xG and Nancy 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.875 / defence 0.998 | Nancy attack 0.714 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.141. Data: 63 Clermont Foot games / 29 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 40% | Draw 35% | Nancy 25%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Nancy 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Clermont Foot 60% | Nancy 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights