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Poisson model rates Annecy at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Annecy welcome PAU to Parc des Sports. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Annecy have posted 5W 3D 2L at Parc des Sports — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

PAU's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 1.50 PPG, PAU 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Annecy, 3 for PAU and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with PAU winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Annecy trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

PAU trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 45% versus PAU 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 43% | PAU 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.37 xG and PAU 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.965 / defence 0.832 | PAU attack 1.032 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.174. Data: 65 Annecy games / 65 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Annecy 43% | Draw 31% | PAU 26%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | PAU 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | PAU 30% BTTS from recent games.

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