Annecy 0-0 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Annecy and Montpellier meet at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Montpellier (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Montpellier away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Annecy, 1.80 for Montpellier — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Annecy 0W, Montpellier 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Montpellier winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Montpellier — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 44% versus Montpellier 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 43% | Montpellier 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.04 xG and Montpellier 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.076 / defence 0.890 | Montpellier attack 0.739 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.141. Data: 63 Annecy games / 29 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 40% | Draw 36% | Montpellier 24%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Montpellier 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | Montpellier 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 40% | Draw 36% | Montpellier 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Annecy 1.04 / Montpellier 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.076 / def 0.890 | Montpellier attack 0.739 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Annecy (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Montpellier xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Montpellier kick off?
Annecy vs Montpellier kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 April 2026 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Montpellier?
Annecy 0 - 0 Montpellier.
Where is Annecy vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Montpellier part of?
Annecy vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 40% chance of winning, Montpellier a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Annecy and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Montpellier?
Record (1 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 0 | Montpellier 1W.
What form are Annecy and Montpellier in?
Annecy (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Montpellier (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Annecy's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Montpellier's attack (0.74x) against Annecy's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
40%
2.50
36%
2.79
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.79
0.75
Montpellier xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
9%
11.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Annecy and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Annecy and 0.75 for Montpellier, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Annecy's recent record stands at 26W 15D 22L from 63 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Montpellier, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 36L across 63 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Annecy by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Montpellier heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 15W 9D 7L from 31 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Montpellier's away record stands at 6W 3D 22L across 31 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 0.92 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 26W 15D 22L in their last 63 games (1.48 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 16W 11D 36L in their last 63 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Montpellier away?
Annecy's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.74 PPG; Montpellier away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Annecy or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Montpellier in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Montpellier?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Montpellier have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Annecy 0-0 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Montpellier?
Montpellier have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Montpellier see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 48%, Montpellier 23% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Annecy and 29% for Montpellier.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Montpellier in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Annecy's recent matches and 23% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Annecy's recent games and 29% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Montpellier tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy and Montpellier finished level at 0-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.04 xG and Montpellier 0.75 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.08 / defence 0.89 against Montpellier attack 0.74 / defence 0.83, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 40% | Draw 36% | Montpellier 24%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 43%, Montpellier 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Montpellier's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.