Le Mans 1-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Mans at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Mans vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 31 as Le Mans welcome Clermont Foot to Stade Marie-Marvingt. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Le Mans have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Mans have posted 6W 4D 0L at Stade Marie-Marvingt — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Marie-Marvingt. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Le Mans are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Le Mans, 0 for Clermont Foot and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Le Mans in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Mans 50% versus Clermont Foot 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Mans 40% | Clermont Foot 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Mans 1.64 xG and Clermont Foot 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Mans attack 1.119 / defence 0.725 | Clermont Foot attack 1.062 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.143. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Le Mans's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Le Mans's defence rating of 0.725 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Le Mans games / 64 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Mans 54% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 18%. Fair-value odds: Le Mans 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Clermont Foot 5.56. Le Mans hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Mans are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Mans offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Mans 20% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Mans vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Marie-Marvingt • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Mans 54% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Le Mans 1.64 / Clermont Foot 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Le Mans attack 1.119 / def 0.725 | Clermont Foot attack 1.062 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Le Mans (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Le Mans xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Clermont Foot xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Mans vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Le Mans vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Stade Marie-Marvingt.
What was the final score in Le Mans vs Clermont Foot?
Le Mans 1 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Le Mans vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marie-Marvingt.
What competition is Le Mans vs Clermont Foot part of?
Le Mans vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Mans vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Le Mans a 54% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Le Mans the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Mans vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Le Mans and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Le Mans vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Mans and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Le Mans 0W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Le Mans and Clermont Foot in?
Le Mans (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Le Mans's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Le Mans's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Mans Win
54%
1.87
28%
3.54
18%
5.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Le Mans xG
Total xG
2.52
0.88
Clermont Foot xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
5.50
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
4%
28.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Mans vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Le Mans and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Le Mans and 0.88 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Mans vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Mans come into this having played 30 games, going 14W 12D 4L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.00 PPG from 30 outings (7W 9D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Le Mans carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Le Mans's home form reads 8W 5D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 0.87 points per game from 15 outings (3W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Mans come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Mans are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.13 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Clermont Foot in 60%.
Defensively: Le Mans have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Mans
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Mans and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Le Mans have gone 14W 12D 4L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 7W 9D 14L in their last 30 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Mans at home or Clermont Foot away?
Le Mans's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Mans at home: 1.93 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Le Mans or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Mans have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Mans and Clermont Foot runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Le Mans
1
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Mans and Clermont Foot?
From 2 meetings on record, Le Mans have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Mans and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Le Mans 1-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Le Mans and Clermont Foot?
Le Mans have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Mans see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Mans 27%, Clermont Foot 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Le Mans) and 53% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Le Mans keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Mans home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Mans play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Le Mans's recent matches and 53% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Mans vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Le Mans's recent games and 53% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Le Mans edge out Clermont Foot 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Mans beat Clermont Foot 1-0 at Stade Marie-Marvingt, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Mans 1.64 xG and Clermont Foot 0.88 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Mans attack 1.12 / defence 0.72 against Clermont Foot attack 1.06 / defence 1.25, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Mans 54% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 18%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Mans 40%, Clermont Foot 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Mans's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Mans arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.