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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Reims take on RED Star FC 93.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 31 as Reims welcome RED Star FC 93 to Stade Auguste-Delaune. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Reims's home record at Stade Auguste-Delaune: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

RED Star FC 93's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reims 1.30 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Reims's 30% rate and RED Star FC 93's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Reims, 0 for RED Star FC 93 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Reims in-play tendencies (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 39% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 48% versus RED Star FC 93 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 43% | RED Star FC 93 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 0.83 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.805 / defence 0.836 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.944 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.169. Data: 30 Reims games / 63 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Reims 29% | Draw 37% | RED Star FC 93 34%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.45 | Draw 2.70 | RED Star FC 93 2.94. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Reims 30% | RED Star FC 93 30% BTTS from recent games.

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