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Poisson rates Guingamp at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Guingamp encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Guingamp travel to Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 April 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

PAU's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 games at Nouste Camp this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Nouste Camp this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

PAU carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. PAU register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Guingamp in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for PAU, 5 for Guingamp and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

PAU in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 52% versus Guingamp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 55% | Guingamp 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.22 xG and Guingamp 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.971 / defence 1.338 | Guingamp attack 1.010 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.143. Data: 64 PAU games / 64 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAU 28% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 43%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

Guingamp lead the H2H ledger, but PAU carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PAU (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PAU 70% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.

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