Guingamp 1-2 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Guingamp face Saint Etienne.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Guingamp welcome Saint Etienne to Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 14 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Guingamp stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Saint Etienne — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.40 (Saint Etienne). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Guingamp's 30% BTTS rate and Saint Etienne's 30% (from Guingamp's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Guingamp, 1 for Saint Etienne and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Guingamp 3–2 Saint Etienne — a Guingamp win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 52% versus Saint Etienne 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 64% | Saint Etienne 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.39 xG and Saint Etienne 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.105 / defence 0.994 | Saint Etienne attack 0.780 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.205. Saint Etienne's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Guingamp's last 56 games and Saint Etienne's last 22.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 47% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 25%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.11 | Draw 3.67 | Saint Etienne 3.95. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Guingamp 30% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 47% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Guingamp 1.39 / Saint Etienne 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.105 / def 0.994 | Saint Etienne attack 0.780 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Saint Etienne xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Guingamp vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does Guingamp vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Guingamp vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Guingamp 1 - 2 Saint Etienne.
Where is Guingamp vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Saint Etienne part of?
Guingamp vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 47% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Guingamp and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Guingamp vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.10x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Guingamp's last 56 games and Saint Etienne's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.67
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.32
0.94
Saint Etienne xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
6%
15.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Guingamp vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.94 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 56 games, going 25W 10D 21L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 1.20 PPG from 56 outings (19W 10D 27L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.52 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 13W 6D 8L across their last 27 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 0.96 points per game from their last 27 away games (7W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.36 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
Guingamp (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Guingamp
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Guingamp vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are Guingamp and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 25W 10D 21L in their last 56 games (1.52 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 19W 10D 27L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Saint Etienne away?
Guingamp's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.67 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Oct 2026, when Guingamp won Guingamp 3-0 Saint Etienne.
Guingamp's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Guingamp
1
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Guingamp vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Saint Etienne?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Guingamp have won 4, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Guingamp 3-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Saint Etienne?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 44%, Saint Etienne 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Guingamp and 56% for Saint Etienne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Guingamp vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Guingamp and Saint Etienne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Guingamp's recent matches and 48% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Guingamp and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Guingamp's matches and 56% of Saint Etienne's.
Do Guingamp and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Guingamp's recent matches and 74% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Guingamp 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Guingamp 1-2 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.39 xG and Saint Etienne 0.94 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Saint Etienne outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against Saint Etienne attack 0.78 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 47% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 25%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Saint Etienne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 64%, Saint Etienne 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.52 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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