🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Dunkerque and Guingamp meet at Stade Marcel Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Dunkerque's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Guingamp (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guingamp's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Dunkerque against 1.70 for Guingamp. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Dunkerque, 4 for Guingamp and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Guingamp winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Dunkerque goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 50% versus Guingamp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 45% | Guingamp 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.79 xG and Guingamp 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 1.222 / defence 0.951 | Guingamp attack 1.177 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.163. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Dunkerque's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Dunkerque games / 55 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dunkerque 49% | Draw 23% | Guingamp 28%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Guingamp 3.57. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Dunkerque as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dunkerque if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 50% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights