Saint Etienne 1-0 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Montpellier encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Saint Etienne welcome Montpellier to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Montpellier have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Montpellier have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Saint Etienne 1.40 PPG, Montpellier 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Saint Etienne have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Montpellier have managed just 1 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Saint Etienne winning.
The historical record gives Saint Etienne a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Montpellier trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 53% versus Montpellier 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | Montpellier 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.28 xG and Montpellier 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.187 / defence 1.125 | Montpellier attack 0.771 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.161. Data: 21 Saint Etienne games / 21 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 43% | Draw 28% | Montpellier 29%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Montpellier 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 60% | Montpellier 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 43% | Draw 28% | Montpellier 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Saint Etienne 1.28 / Montpellier 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.187 / def 1.125 | Montpellier attack 0.771 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Montpellier xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Montpellier kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Montpellier kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Saint Etienne 1 - 0 Montpellier.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Montpellier part of?
Saint Etienne vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 43% chance of winning, Montpellier a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Saint Etienne and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Montpellier?
Record (5 meetings): Saint Etienne 4W | Draws 0 | Montpellier 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Montpellier in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Montpellier (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.55
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.29
1.01
Montpellier xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
8%
12.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.01 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 10D 27L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Montpellier sit at 0.85 PPG from 55 outings (13W 8D 34L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.16 PPG, Montpellier on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Saint Etienne's home form reads 11W 5D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Montpellier have taken 0.63 points per game from 27 outings (5W 2D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 0.85 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 18W 10D 27L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 13W 8D 34L in their last 55 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Montpellier away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.41 PPG; Montpellier away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Saint Etienne have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Montpellier specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
1
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Montpellier?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 5, Montpellier have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Saint Etienne 1-0 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Montpellier?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 59%, Montpellier 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Saint Etienne) and 30% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Montpellier in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 26% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 30% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Montpellier tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Montpellier 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Montpellier 1-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.28 xG and Montpellier 1.01 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Montpellier landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.19 / defence 1.12 against Montpellier attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 43% | Draw 28% | Montpellier 29%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, Montpellier 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Montpellier's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.16 PPG, Montpellier 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.