🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Montpellier encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Saint Etienne welcome Montpellier to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Montpellier have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Montpellier have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Saint Etienne 1.40 PPG, Montpellier 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Saint Etienne have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Montpellier have managed just 1 wins.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Saint Etienne winning.

The historical record gives Saint Etienne a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Saint Etienne trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Montpellier trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 53% versus Montpellier 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | Montpellier 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.28 xG and Montpellier 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.187 / defence 1.125 | Montpellier attack 0.771 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.161. Data: 21 Saint Etienne games / 21 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 43% | Draw 28% | Montpellier 29%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Montpellier 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 60% | Montpellier 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights