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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Rodez take on Estac Troyes.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Paul-Lignon to take on Rodez. The game is scheduled for Monday 13 April 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Rodez at Stade Paul-Lignon this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Paul-Lignon this season.

Estac Troyes — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Estac Troyes away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Rodez are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Rodez: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Estac Troyes, with 1 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Rodez and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Rodez trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Estac Troyes trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 70% versus Estac Troyes 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 54% | Estac Troyes 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.05 xG and Estac Troyes 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.949 / defence 0.845 | Estac Troyes attack 1.016 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.143. Data: 63 Rodez games / 63 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rodez 34% | Draw 35% | Estac Troyes 31%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Estac Troyes 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Rodez 80% | Estac Troyes 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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