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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as RED Star FC 93 take on Bastia.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 30 as RED Star FC 93 welcome Bastia to Stade Bauer. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, RED Star FC 93 stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

RED Star FC 93 at Stade Bauer this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Bauer.

Bastia — All Games: 0W 7D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Bastia's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

RED Star FC 93 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, RED Star FC 93 have won 0, Bastia 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Bastia winning.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

RED Star FC 93 trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Bastia trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 48% versus Bastia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (RED Star FC 93 47% | Bastia 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 0.86 xG and Bastia 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.791 / defence 0.886 | Bastia attack 0.882 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.142. RED Star FC 93's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 RED Star FC 93 games / 62 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 31% | Draw 37% | Bastia 32%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Bastia 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.75 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 40% | Bastia 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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