Nancy 1-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nancy vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nancy host Saint Etienne at Stade Marcel Picot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nancy stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nancy at Stade Marcel Picot this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Saint Etienne — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Saint Etienne's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Saint Etienne — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Nancy's 30% rate and Saint Etienne's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nancy have won 0, Saint Etienne 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nancy in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 43% versus Saint Etienne 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 50% | Saint Etienne 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 0.80 xG and Saint Etienne 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.757 / defence 1.448 | Saint Etienne attack 0.924 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.157. Nancy's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Nancy games / 28 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 18% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 54%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Saint Etienne 1.85. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Nancy 30% | Saint Etienne 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Marcel Picot • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 18% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Nancy 0.80 / Saint Etienne 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.757 / def 1.448 | Saint Etienne attack 0.924 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Saint Etienne xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Nancy vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Stade Marcel Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Saint Etienne?
Nancy 1 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Nancy vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Saint Etienne part of?
Nancy vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 18% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nancy and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Saint Etienne?
Record (1 meetings): Nancy 0W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Nancy and Saint Etienne in?
Nancy (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nancy's attack rating (0.76) and Saint Etienne's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-2 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
18%
5.60
28%
3.52
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.35
1.55
Saint Etienne xG
5.60
18%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
4%
26.37
24%
4.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 14.8 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Nancy and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Nancy and 1.55 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nancy's recent record stands at 7W 7D 14L from 28 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 16W 5D 7L across 28 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Saint Etienne by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nancy heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nancy have managed 4W 2D 8L from 14 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 7W 3D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nancy are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.79 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 7W 7D 14L in their last 28 games (1.00 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 16W 5D 7L in their last 28 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 1.00 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Nancy or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nancy and Saint Etienne runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nancy
1
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Saint Etienne?
From 2 meetings on record, Nancy have won 0, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Nancy 1-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Nancy 29% BTTS, Saint Etienne 36%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Nancy) and 50% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 43%; Nancy have failed to score in 50% of games; Saint Etienne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Nancy's recent matches and 36% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Nancy's recent games and 50% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nancy and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 29, as Nancy and Saint Etienne drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 0.80 xG and Saint Etienne 1.55 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.76 / defence 1.45 against Saint Etienne attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 18% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 54%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 50%, Saint Etienne 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.