Boulogne 0-0 Le Mans – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Mans at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Le Mans fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Boulogne host Le Mans at Stade de la Libération in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Boulogne stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Boulogne at Stade de la Libération this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de la Libération this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Le Mans have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Le Mans have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Le Mans — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Boulogne, 1 for Le Mans and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Le Mans winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Boulogne trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Le Mans trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 48% versus Le Mans 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 45% | Le Mans 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.43 xG and Le Mans 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.947 / defence 1.301 | Le Mans attack 1.340 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.142. Le Mans bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Boulogne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Le Mans have an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 Boulogne games / 29 Le Mans games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 26% | Draw 24% | Le Mans 50%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Le Mans 2.00. Le Mans hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Mans are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Mans offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 70% | Le Mans 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Le Mans | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 26% | Draw 24% | Le Mans 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Boulogne 1.43 / Le Mans 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.947 / def 1.301 | Le Mans attack 1.340 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Le Mans (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Le Mans xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Le Mans kick off?
Boulogne vs Le Mans kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs Le Mans?
Boulogne 0 - 0 Le Mans.
Where is Boulogne vs Le Mans being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs Le Mans part of?
Boulogne vs Le Mans is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Le Mans?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 26% chance of winning, Le Mans a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Le Mans the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Le Mans?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Boulogne and Le Mans will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Le Mans have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Le Mans?
Record (1 meetings): Boulogne 0W | Draws 0 | Le Mans 1W.
What form are Boulogne and Le Mans in?
Boulogne (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Le Mans (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Boulogne's attack rating (0.95) and Le Mans's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Mans's attack versus Boulogne's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Mans Win
26%
3.79
24%
4.14
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
2 – 1
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Boulogne xG
Total xG
3.42
1.99
Le Mans xG
3.79
26%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
14%
7.33
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
4%
27.81
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Le Mans?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Le Mans expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.99 for Le Mans, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Le Mans?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Boulogne come into this having played 29 games, going 9W 8D 12L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Le Mans sit at 1.83 PPG from 29 outings (14W 11D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Le Mans carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Boulogne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Boulogne's home form reads 4W 2D 8L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Mans have taken 1.71 points per game from 14 outings (6W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Mans come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Boulogne are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Le Mans are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Le Mans in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Current Season
Le Mans
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Le Mans in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 9W 8D 12L in their last 29 games (1.21 PPG), while Le Mans have gone 14W 11D 4L in their last 29 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Le Mans away?
Le Mans's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 1.00 PPG; Le Mans away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Boulogne or Le Mans been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Le Mans in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Boulogne
1
Draws
1
Le Mans
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Le Mans?
From 2 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 0, Le Mans have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Le Mans last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Boulogne 0-0 Le Mans.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Le Mans?
Le Mans have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Le Mans are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Boulogne at 57%, Le Mans at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Boulogne and 57% for Le Mans. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Boulogne have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Le Mans away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Le Mans?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Boulogne's games and 79% of Le Mans's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boulogne vs Le Mans usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Boulogne's matches and 57% of Le Mans's.
Do Boulogne and Le Mans tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Le Mans in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Boulogne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 30, as Boulogne and Le Mans drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.43 xG and Le Mans 1.99 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Boulogne fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Le Mans landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.95 / defence 1.30 against Le Mans attack 1.34 / defence 1.30, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 26% | Draw 24% | Le Mans 50%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 45%, Le Mans 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boulogne's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Le Mans's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Mans arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Boulogne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line. Le Mans (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.