Annecy 2-0 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Paris FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris FC make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 13 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Annecy (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 3W 2D 4L from 9 home games — 1.22 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Paris FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Paris FC have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Paris FC arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 28% versus Paris FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 33% | Paris FC 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.60 xG and Paris FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.742 / defence 1.056 | Paris FC attack 1.030 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.007. Annecy's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.60 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Paris FC's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 18 Annecy games / 56 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 20% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 5.00 | Draw 3.03 | Paris FC 2.13. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Annecy's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Paris FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.70 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 33% | Paris FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 20% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 31% | xG Annecy 0.60 / Paris FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.742 / def 1.056 | Paris FC attack 1.030 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.60
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Paris FC xG
31%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Paris FC kick off?
Annecy vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 January 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Paris FC?
Annecy 2 - 0 Paris FC.
Where is Annecy vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Paris FC part of?
Annecy vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 20% chance of winning, Paris FC a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Annecy and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Paris FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Paris FC in?
Annecy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Paris FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.74) and Paris FC's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (1.03x) against Annecy's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (18.4%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
20%
5.04
33%
3.01
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.60
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.70
1.10
Paris FC xG
5.04
20%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.27
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
55%
1.83
Win to Nil
7%
15.08
26%
3.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.3 | 20.0 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Annecy and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.60 expected goals for Annecy and 1.10 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 5W 6D 7L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC's form line: 7W 6D 5L from 18 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Annecy against 1.50 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
On the road, Paris FC have gone 5W 3D 1L from 9 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.50 PPG overall record — Paris FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 0.94 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Paris FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 5W 6D 7L in their last 18 games (1.17 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 7W 6D 5L in their last 18 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.22 PPG; Paris FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Annecy or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Paris FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Annecy
2
Draws
3
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Paris FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Paris FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Annecy 2-3 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Paris FC tend to start slowly — only 22% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Annecy) and 33% (Paris FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Annecy and 22% for Paris FC.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Paris FC in 67%; Annecy have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Annecy's recent matches and 33% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Annecy's recent games and 22% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Paris FC tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 22% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Paris FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Paris FC 2-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.60 xG and Paris FC 1.10 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Paris FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.74 / defence 1.06 against Paris FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.74, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 20% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 47%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 33%, Paris FC 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Paris FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.17 PPG, Paris FC 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.