PAU 2-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Annecy travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAU — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Nouste Camp, PAU have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Annecy have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PAU at 1.20 PPG versus Annecy's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, PAU have won 1, Annecy 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with PAU winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAU trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Annecy trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 53% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (PAU 42% | Annecy 26%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 37% | Annecy 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.98 xG and Annecy 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.840 / defence 0.934 | Annecy attack 0.979 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.038. Data: 57 PAU games / 19 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 35% | Draw 32% | Annecy 33%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Annecy 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Annecy 22% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 35% | Draw 32% | Annecy 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG PAU 0.98 / Annecy 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.840 / def 0.934 | Annecy attack 0.979 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: PAU (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Annecy xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Annecy kick off?
PAU vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Annecy?
PAU 2 - 2 Annecy.
Where is PAU vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Annecy part of?
PAU vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 35% chance of winning, Annecy a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both PAU and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 0 | Annecy 0W.
What form are PAU and Annecy in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Annecy (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.84x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
35%
2.86
32%
3.15
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
PAU xG
Total xG
1.93
0.95
Annecy xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 13.7 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are PAU and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for PAU and 0.95 for Annecy, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAU's recent record stands at 5W 7D 7L from 19 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 7L across 19 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.16 PPG, Annecy on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PAU have managed 3W 4D 2L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 2W 4D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 0.95 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy in 26%.
Defensively: Annecy in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Annecy in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 games (1.16 PPG), while Annecy have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Annecy away?
PAU's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.44 PPG; Annecy away: 1.11 PPG.
Have PAU or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Annecy in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2026, when Annecy won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAU
2
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Annecy have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Annecy 5-1 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Annecy see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — PAU 33% BTTS, Annecy 22%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PAU) and 33% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Annecy in 44%; PAU have failed to score in 44% of games; Annecy in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of PAU's recent matches and 22% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of PAU's recent games and 33% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Annecy tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Annecy in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Annecy share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 20, as PAU and Annecy drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.98 xG and Annecy 0.95 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Annecy attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 35% | Draw 32% | Annecy 33%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 37%, Annecy 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.16 PPG, Annecy 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAU (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.