Le Havre 3-1 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Nimes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Nimes at Stade Océane in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.10 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's home record at Stade Océane: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nimes have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nimes have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Le Havre carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Le Havre have won 1, Nimes 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Nimes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Nimes in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 38% versus Nimes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 32% | Nimes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.42 xG and Nimes 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 1.094 / defence 0.669 | Nimes attack 0.898 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.007. Le Havre's defence rating of 0.669 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Le Havre games / 56 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 57% | Draw 28% | Nimes 16%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Nimes 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Nimes's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. This conflicts with form data: Le Havre 40% | Nimes 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 57% | Draw 28% | Nimes 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 35% | xG Le Havre 1.42 / Nimes 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 1.094 / def 0.669 | Nimes attack 0.898 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Nimes xG
35%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Nimes kick off?
Le Havre vs Nimes kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 January 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Nimes?
Le Havre 3 - 1 Nimes.
Where is Le Havre vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Nimes part of?
Le Havre vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 57% chance of winning, Nimes a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Le Havre and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Nimes?
Record (2 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 0 | Nimes 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Nimes in?
Le Havre (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Nimes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (1.09) and Nimes's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 2-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
57%
1.77
28%
3.58
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.02
0.60
Nimes xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
4%
26.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 11.3 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.60 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Nimes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre's recent record stands at 24W 17D 15L from 56 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nimes, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 27L across 56 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Le Havre by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nimes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 12W 8D 8L from 28 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nimes's away record stands at 8W 6D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.07 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Nimes in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 24W 17D 15L in their last 56 games (1.59 PPG), while Nimes have gone 18W 11D 27L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Nimes away?
Le Havre's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.57 PPG; Nimes away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Nimes in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Nimes runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Le Havre go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Le Havre's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Le Havre
0
Draws
1
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 3, Nimes have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Nimes 0-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Nimes?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 39%, Nimes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Le Havre) and 54% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 29% of games; Nimes in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Nimes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Le Havre's recent matches and 50% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Le Havre's recent games and 54% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Nimes tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Nimes in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nimes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Nimes 3-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.42 xG and Nimes 0.60 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.09 / defence 0.67 against Nimes attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 57% | Draw 28% | Nimes 16%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 32%, Nimes 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Nimes's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Nimes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.