Paris FC 2-1 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 35%, yet in-form Paris FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Paris FC vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Dijon travel to Stade Charléty to take on Paris FC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 10 January 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Paris FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's home record at Stade Charléty: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Charléty this season.
Dijon — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dijon have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Paris FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dijon in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Paris FC, 0 for Dijon and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Paris FC trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Dijon trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 51% versus Dijon 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 38% | Dijon 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.04 xG and Dijon 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 0.824 / defence 1.166 | Dijon attack 0.918 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 0.982. Data: 55 Paris FC games / 55 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 35% | Draw 30% | Dijon 35%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Dijon 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Paris FC 60% | Dijon 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 35% | Draw 30% | Dijon 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Paris FC 1.04 / Dijon 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 0.824 / def 1.166 | Dijon attack 0.918 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.112 / away 0.982 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Dijon xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Dijon kick off?
Paris FC vs Dijon kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 10 January 2023 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Dijon?
Paris FC 2 - 1 Dijon.
Where is Paris FC vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Dijon part of?
Paris FC vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 35% chance of winning, Dijon a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Paris FC and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Dijon?
Record (2 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 1 | Dijon 0W.
What form are Paris FC and Dijon in?
Paris FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Dijon (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Paris FC's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.33
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.09
1.05
Dijon xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.05 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris FC's recent record stands at 25W 16D 14L from 55 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 24L across 55 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris FC by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dijon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Paris FC have managed 11W 10D 6L from 27 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dijon's away record stands at 6W 7D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.20 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Dijon in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 25W 16D 14L in their last 55 games (1.65 PPG), while Dijon have gone 17W 14D 24L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Dijon away?
Paris FC's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.59 PPG; Dijon away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Dijon in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris FC's record when hosting Dijon specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Paris FC
2
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 2, Dijon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Dijon 1-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Dijon?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 52%, Dijon 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Paris FC) and 59% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Dijon in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Paris FC's games and 59% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris FC vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Paris FC's recent games and 59% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Dijon tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Dijon in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Paris FC defy the odds to beat Dijon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Dijon 2-1 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.04 xG and Dijon 1.05 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.17 against Dijon attack 0.92 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 35% | Draw 30% | Dijon 35%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 38%, Dijon 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Dijon's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.