Bastia 1-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade Armand-Césari to face Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 13 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bastia have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia at Stade Armand-Césari this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAU's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Bastia, 1.50 for PAU — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bastia lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 43% versus PAU 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 30% | PAU 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.09 xG and PAU 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.899 / defence 0.804 | PAU attack 0.960 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.007. Data: 56 Bastia games / 56 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 42% | Draw 32% | PAU 26%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | PAU 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 10% | PAU 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 42% | Draw 32% | PAU 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Bastia 1.09 / PAU 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.899 / def 0.804 | PAU attack 0.960 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Bastia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.78
PAU xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs PAU kick off?
Bastia vs PAU kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 January 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs PAU?
Bastia 1 - 0 PAU.
Where is Bastia vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs PAU part of?
Bastia vs PAU is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 42% chance of winning, PAU a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Bastia and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and PAU?
Record (2 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 1 | PAU 1W.
What form are Bastia and PAU in?
Bastia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. PAU (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bastia's attack rating (0.90) and PAU's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.96x) against Bastia's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
42%
2.38
32%
3.08
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.86
0.78
PAU xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Bastia and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Bastia and 0.78 for PAU, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 20D 19L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.27 PPG from 56 outings (19W 14D 23L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Bastia against 1.27 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bastia's home form reads 10W 13D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 0.93 points per game from 28 outings (6W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.02 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and PAU in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 17W 20D 19L in their last 56 games (1.27 PPG), while PAU have gone 19W 14D 23L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or PAU away?
Bastia's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.54 PPG; PAU away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Bastia or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, PAU in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 2-6 on 20 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bastia
5
Draws
2
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, PAU have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when PAU 2-2 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and PAU?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 36%, PAU 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Bastia and 43% for PAU.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 32% of games; PAU in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Bastia's recent matches and 54% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Bastia's recent games and 43% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and PAU tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, PAU in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out PAU 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat PAU 1-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.09 xG and PAU 0.78 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.90 / defence 0.80 against PAU attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 42% | Draw 32% | PAU 26%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 30%, PAU 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAU's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.27 PPG, PAU 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.