Bordeaux 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bordeaux host Amiens at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Bordeaux — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Matmut-Atlantique. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bordeaux at 1.80 PPG versus Amiens's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Amiens in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 59% versus Amiens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 57% | Amiens 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.19 xG and Amiens 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.076 / defence 0.905 | Amiens attack 1.069 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.007. Data: 18 Bordeaux games / 56 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 41% | Draw 30% | Amiens 30%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Amiens 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 30% | Amiens 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 41% | Draw 30% | Amiens 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Bordeaux 1.19 / Amiens 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.076 / def 0.905 | Amiens attack 1.069 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Amiens xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Amiens kick off?
Bordeaux vs Amiens kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 January 2023 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Amiens?
Bordeaux 1 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Bordeaux vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Amiens part of?
Bordeaux vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 41% chance of winning, Amiens a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bordeaux and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Amiens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Amiens in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Amiens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bordeaux's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
41%
2.47
30%
3.34
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.17
0.97
Amiens xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.97 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bordeaux's recent record stands at 15W 18D 23L from 56 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 17W 21D 18L across 56 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 1.12 PPG, Amiens on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bordeaux have managed 9W 9D 10L from 28 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Amiens's away record stands at 5W 13D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bordeaux are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.14 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Amiens in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 15W 18D 23L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Amiens have gone 17W 21D 18L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Amiens away?
Bordeaux's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 1.29 PPG; Amiens away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Amiens in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bordeaux and Amiens runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bordeaux's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bordeaux
2
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 2, Amiens have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2024, when Amiens 1-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Amiens?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 57%, Amiens 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bordeaux) and 32% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux have failed to score in 29% of games; Amiens in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Amiens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Bordeaux's games and 54% of Amiens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bordeaux's recent games and 32% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Amiens tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Amiens in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bordeaux and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 19, as Bordeaux and Amiens drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.19 xG and Amiens 0.97 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.08 / defence 0.91 against Amiens attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 41% | Draw 30% | Amiens 30%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 57%, Amiens 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 1.12 PPG, Amiens 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.