Quevilly 3-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Paris FC travel to Stade Robert Diochon to take on Quevilly. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Quevilly — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's home record at Stade Robert Diochon: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Paris FC have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Quevilly 1.80 PPG, Paris FC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Paris FC, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Quevilly.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Paris FC winning.
It is worth noting that Paris FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Paris FC trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 41% versus Paris FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 43% | Paris FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.11 xG and Paris FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.095 / defence 1.052 | Paris FC attack 0.916 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.038. Data: 57 Quevilly games / 57 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 38% | Draw 30% | Paris FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Paris FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 60% | Paris FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 38% | Draw 30% | Paris FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Quevilly 1.11 / Paris FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.095 / def 1.052 | Paris FC attack 0.916 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Paris FC xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Paris FC kick off?
Quevilly vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Quevilly 3 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Quevilly vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Paris FC part of?
Quevilly vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 38% chance of winning, Paris FC a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Quevilly and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Paris FC?
Record (3 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 0 | Paris FC 3W.
What form are Quevilly and Paris FC in?
Quevilly (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Paris FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 1.09x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
38%
2.65
30%
3.32
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.11
1.00
Paris FC xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.00 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Quevilly's recent record stands at 18W 16D 24L from 58 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 16D 15L across 58 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris FC by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Quevilly heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 9W 11D 9L from 29 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 14W 6D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Quevilly are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.24 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 18W 16D 24L in their last 58 games (1.21 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 27W 16D 15L in their last 58 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.31 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Paris FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Paris FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Quevilly's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Quevilly
2
Draws
3
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Paris FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Paris FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Quevilly 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 52%, Paris FC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Quevilly) and 38% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Paris FC in 38%; Quevilly have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Quevilly's recent matches and 45% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Quevilly's recent games and 38% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Paris FC tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Paris FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Paris FC 3-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.11 xG and Paris FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.09 / defence 1.05 against Paris FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.87, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 38% | Draw 30% | Paris FC 32%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 43%, Paris FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Paris FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Quevilly winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.