Laval 3-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade Francis Le Basser to face Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 13 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Laval (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 3W 1D 5L from 9 Ligue 2 appearances (1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rodez have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Laval against 1.00 for Rodez. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Laval — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rodez — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 22% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 44% versus Rodez 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 61% | Rodez 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 0.99 xG and Rodez 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.989 / defence 1.380 | Rodez attack 0.915 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.007. Data: 18 Laval games / 56 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 29% | Draw 29% | Rodez 42%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Rodez 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Laval 56% | Rodez 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 29% | Draw 29% | Rodez 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Laval 0.99 / Rodez 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.989 / def 1.380 | Rodez attack 0.915 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Rodez (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Rodez xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Rodez kick off?
Laval vs Rodez kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 January 2023 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Rodez?
Laval 3 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Laval vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Rodez part of?
Laval vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 29% chance of winning, Rodez a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Laval and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Rodez?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Laval and Rodez in?
Laval (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Rodez (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Laval's attack at 0.99x the league average against Rodez's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.92x) against Laval's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
29%
3.49
29%
3.44
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Laval xG
Total xG
2.27
1.27
Rodez xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
8%
12.45
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Laval and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Laval and 1.27 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Laval have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 6W 2D 10L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez's form line: 4W 7D 7L from 18 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Laval against 1.06 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Laval have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Laval are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.89 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Rodez in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 6W 2D 10L in their last 18 games (1.11 PPG), while Rodez have gone 4W 7D 7L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.11 PPG; Rodez away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Laval
2
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Rodez?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 5, Rodez have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Laval 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Rodez?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Rodez tend to start slowly — only 22% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 56%, Rodez 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Laval) and 22% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Rodez in 44%; Rodez in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Laval's recent matches and 22% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 78% of Laval's recent games and 22% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Rodez tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Rodez in 22% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Laval cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Rodez 3-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 0.99 xG and Rodez 1.27 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Laval beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.99 / defence 1.38 against Rodez attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 29% | Draw 29% | Rodez 42%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Laval win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 61%, Rodez 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.11 PPG, Rodez 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Rodez (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.