Amiens 1-4 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host Dunkerque at Stade de la Licorne in Ligue 2 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Amiens — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Amiens at home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Dunkerque have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dunkerque's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dunkerque are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Amiens, 3 for Dunkerque and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Amiens 2–6 Dunkerque — a Dunkerque win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Amiens in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 52% versus Dunkerque 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 55% | Dunkerque 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.17 xG and Dunkerque 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.060 / defence 1.258 | Dunkerque attack 1.103 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.171. Amiens's defence rating of 1.258 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dunkerque's projected output up. Data: built from Amiens's last 56 games and Dunkerque's last 56.
Result probabilities: Amiens 27% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 48%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.64 | Draw 4.07 | Dunkerque 2.08. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Amiens 50% (last 10 home games) | Dunkerque 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 27% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Amiens 1.17 / Dunkerque 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.060 / def 1.258 | Dunkerque attack 1.103 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Dunkerque xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Dunkerque FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Dunkerque kick off?
Amiens vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 February 2026 at Stade de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Amiens 1 - 4 Dunkerque.
Where is Amiens vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Dunkerque part of?
Amiens vs Dunkerque is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 27% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Amiens and Dunkerque will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Amiens vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Amiens's attack rating (1.06) and Dunkerque's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 56 games and Dunkerque's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
27%
3.64
25%
4.07
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.79
1.62
Dunkerque xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
5%
18.50
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Dunkerque Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Amiens and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Amiens and 1.62 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens's recent record stands at 19W 8D 29L from 56 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 17L across 56 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dunkerque by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Amiens heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 12W 5D 10L from their last 27 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 9W 7D 11L across their last 27 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.45 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
Amiens (Home) vs Dunkerque (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Amiens vs Dunkerque Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 19W 8D 29L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 27W 12D 17L in their last 56 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Dunkerque away?
Amiens's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.52 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Amiens or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dunkerque have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Sep 2025, when Dunkerque won Dunkerque 6-2 Amiens.
Amiens's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Amiens
1
Draws
4
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Dunkerque H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Dunkerque?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 3, Dunkerque have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Amiens and Dunkerque last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Amiens 1-4 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 56%, Dunkerque 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Amiens) and 37% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Amiens have failed to score in 26% of games; Dunkerque in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Dunkerque Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Dunkerque matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Amiens's recent matches and 52% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and Dunkerque matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Amiens's recent games and 37% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Dunkerque matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Amiens's recent matches and 70% of Dunkerque's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dunkerque run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Amiens 1-4 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.17 xG and Dunkerque 1.62 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Dunkerque outscored their 1.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.06 / defence 1.26 against Dunkerque attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 27% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 48%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 55%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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