🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Amiens at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stade de la Licorne plays host to Amiens versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Monday 9 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form

Amiens (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Amiens's home record at Stade de la Licorne: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Clermont Foot have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Clermont Foot are 0.50 PPG clear of Amiens in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Amiens lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Clermont Foot winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 51% versus Clermont Foot 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 54% | Clermont Foot 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.07 xG and Clermont Foot 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.829 / defence 1.090 | Clermont Foot attack 0.781 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.151. Data: 55 Amiens games / 55 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Amiens 37% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 32%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Clermont Foot 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Clermont Foot (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 50% | Clermont Foot 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights