Teplice 1-3 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Teplice face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
Teplice (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Teplice's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Teplice, 1.10 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Teplice edge it 4 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Teplice 0–0 Sigma Olomouc — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 49% versus Sigma Olomouc 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Sigma Olomouc 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.56 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.956 / defence 0.859 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.847 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.114. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Teplice's projected output up. Data: built from Teplice's last 52 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 52.
Result probabilities: Teplice 55% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 19%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.82 | Draw 3.84 | Sigma Olomouc 5.24. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Teplice 40% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 55% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Teplice 1.56 / Sigma Olomouc 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.956 / def 0.859 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.847 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Teplice (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Sigma Olomouc xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice 1 - 3 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 55% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Teplice and Sigma Olomouc will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.96) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.85x) against Teplice's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 52 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.84
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.37
0.81
Sigma Olomouc xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
4%
24.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Teplice and 0.81 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Teplice's recent record stands at 18W 15D 24L from 57 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 22L across 57 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Teplice against 1.32 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 13W 4D 12L from their last 29 home games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 7W 10D 12L across their last 29 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.19 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs Sigma Olomouc (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 18W 15D 24L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 15D 22L in their last 57 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Teplice's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.48 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Teplice or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 4, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Teplice 1-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 48%, Sigma Olomouc 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Teplice) and 41% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Sigma Olomouc matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Teplice's recent matches and 48% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Teplice's recent games and 41% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Sigma Olomouc matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Teplice's recent matches and 69% of Sigma Olomouc's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Teplice 1-3 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.56 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.81 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.96 / defence 0.86 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.85 / defence 1.23, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 55% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 19%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Sigma Olomouc win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Sigma Olomouc 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.21 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.