Baník Ostrava 0-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Mlada Boleslav travel to Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Mlada Boleslav have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Baník Ostrava 0.80 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Mlada Boleslav 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Baník Ostrava trading profile (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 44% versus Mlada Boleslav 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 42% | Mlada Boleslav 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.56 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.948 / defence 1.109 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.935 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.114. Mlada Boleslav bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Baník Ostrava games / 52 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 28%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Mlada Boleslav 3.57. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 40% | Mlada Boleslav 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.56 / Mlada Boleslav 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.948 / def 1.109 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.935 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Mlada Boleslav xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 46% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (8 meetings): Baník Ostrava 4W | Draws 2 | Mlada Boleslav 2W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.95x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
46%
2.15
26%
3.89
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.71
1.15
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
6%
17.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.15 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 26W 11D 20L from 57 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 27L across 57 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mlada Boleslav heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 15W 3D 9L from 27 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 7W 5D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.35 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 26W 11D 20L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 15W 15D 27L in their last 57 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.78 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baník Ostrava
4
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 48%, Mlada Boleslav 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Baník Ostrava) and 63% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Baník Ostrava's games and 67% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 63% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Baník Ostrava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav finished level at 0-0 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.56 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.15 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 46% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 28%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 42%, Mlada Boleslav 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.