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Poisson rates Teplice at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Teplice encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Pardubice and Teplice meet at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Pardubice (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Pardubice have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Teplice, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Teplice have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Pardubice — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

Teplice — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 47% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 45% | Teplice 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.87 xG and Teplice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.797 / defence 1.151 | Teplice attack 0.784 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.109. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Pardubice games / 53 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pardubice 29% | Draw 35% | Teplice 36%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Teplice 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 60% | Teplice 50%.

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