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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Dukla Praha travel to Dolicek to take on Bohemians 1905. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Dolicek, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dukla Praha stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dukla Praha away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1905 0.70 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bohemians 1905, 1 for Dukla Praha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 46% versus Dukla Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 48% | Dukla Praha 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.17 xG and Dukla Praha 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.724 / defence 1.189 | Dukla Praha attack 0.731 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.127. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dukla Praha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Bohemians 1905 games / 52 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 31% | Dukla Praha 30%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Dukla Praha 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Dukla Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.

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